United v Real, A Mouth Watering Champions League Tie!

The Champions League last 16 draw brings Real Madrid to us, a two-legged affair between top teams in the top 2 leagues in Europe.

This mouth watering event, has match ups from manager to the bench, that pits top players in every position against their counterparts. Surely a game for the connoisseur, Rioja vs Single Malt, different yet each the best in their geography.

Predicting the outcome is difficult if the game were to be next week, but given its 2 months away it’s even harder.

On form, the games will be close. Real Madrid are the Manchester City of La Liga. After last seasons triumph they have fallen behind their rivals and their form in the Champions League has hardly set the world alight.

One point from 6 against Borussia Dortmund and a stuttering pair of performances against City, don’t strike any fear into us. Their league form has also been poor to the extent that they look more like the Arsenal of La Liga than the City.

However, our form was also poor in qualifying from a Group that was the very definition of easy. Losing at home to Cluj, a weak effort in Braga and some rather streaky single goal victories in the first few games, added up to a competent but hardly inspiring qualification.

Traditionally, we kick on after Christmas and the hope is that our form will improve, but the likelihood is that Real Madrid will also improve. So lets assume we are both at our very best in February, if so what will happen?

My usual method of predicting the result is to first look at how many of our players would get into their best XI.

My opinion is that our back 5 is worse than theirs. Perhaps Rafael should play his form, age, pace and tenacity has been a bright spot in our season so far as he has made the right back berth his own. Apart from his spat with Sir Alex Ferguson after his substitution in his worst game this season, he has been the model right back. But otherwise we are weaker in defence than Real Madrid, despite the fact they are hardly a fortress themselves.

In midfield I like Mesut Ozul and Luka Modric so much but wonder if they are like Samir Nasri and David Silva, in that they can’t really play together. Andres Iniesta and Xavi are the formula that Eden Hazard and Oscar are trying to emulate, but nobody else has yet made it work as effectively as the false number 9 system works at Barcelona. You clearly need a ‘Leo Messi’ type of player and there’s only one of those.

Yet Real has their Messi in a certain Cristiano Ronaldo, who can be unplayable!

So in midfield I take Real over United, Michael Carrick and Tom Cleverley won’t match up after what will be a long winter for both, Anderson, Paul Scholes, Ryan Giggs and Nick Powell won’t be in our first XI, so we remain 2 world class players short of a midfield, and as Sir Alex  says we are not buying in the window.

For me that means we will surrender the majority of possession to Real and not one of our midfield would make it into theirs.

Upfront, we are better. Antonio Valencia, Robin van Persie and Wayne Rooney would all be in their team. Ronaldo would replace any of our front line but Karim Benzema is not a player who strikes fear into my heart.

We can score against Madrid, and we will. But from 40% possession it may be we get few chances and so might score 2 goals in two legs.

Our problem will be not leaking goals.

I remember the old Ronaldo coming to Old Trafford in 2003 for Real and just blowing us away, the whole stadium, including me just stood and applauded him. I fear we might be repeating that for his namesake.

The image of Ronaldo turning Carrick, stepping over 3 times while Michael drops to his backside and then bursting thru Rio Ferdinand and Rafael to thrash a rising drive past David De Gea fills my head.

Corners from the right headed in by Ronaldo towering over Rafael, or roasting Patrice Evra from the right for Benzema to bully Rio at the back post. They could score a lot more than 2.

So the odds are against us. The bookmakers will show that.

So how do we beat them ?

Firstly, we have to play at pace. Our game is all about fast play, quick passing, counterattack at speed and stretching their team. An open fast flowing game is our best chance but beware the counters from Madrid.

I’d play 4-3-3, forsake Ashley Young for Anderson to block up the centre and push Ronaldo wide, as long as he can’t run at our centre backs he is far less effective. Let him go outside Evra and Rafael and he will run out of space.

Playing Rooney upfront alongside RVP will stretch the game and expose the weakest part of Madrid, their defence. Get one on one with any of their back four and they can crumble. Valencia is key, we want him running the line and crossing with pace and low, and this is the route to goal for United.

Over two legs the best team will win but it could be us.

Whatever the outcome this game will be a treat for fans to watch, I see two teams who will play a fast open exciting game both home and away, neither defends well and frankly we can beat Madrid easier than we could beat Bayern Munich or Barca, so it’s not the worst draw we could have had, although of course with both of those being group-winners we couldn’t have got them anyway!

And to add to the fun, City will be sitting at home watching us, with envy!

By Steve Burrows CBE @ifollowsteve